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About Our Country> National Population Report:Index>National Population Report: Part 4 |
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NATIONAL REPORT FOR THE ICPD - Continued 4. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT 4.1 PAST TRENDS AND THE CURRENT SITUATION 4.1.1 Population Size and Growth The British Virgin Islands, one of the few remaining British Dependent Territories, are located on the Eastern Caribbean about sixty miles east of Puerto Rico. They comprise over forty islands with the most populated ones being Tortola, Virgin Gorda, Anegada and Jost Van Dyke. Tortola with a population of over 13,000 and an area of twenty one square miles is the center of government. The islands economy is based mainly on tourism and servicing of international business companies. The population growth in the British Virgin Islands has fluctuated in the nineteenth century when in 1871 the population recorded was 6,651, then declining to 5,787 and 4,639 for the census years 1881 and 1891 respectively. It was not until the twentieth century that the population showed upward movements up to 1991, except for the year 1921 when the population declined from 5,562 in 1911 to 5,082. Table 4.1.1 below shows the total population recorded for censuses taken from 1871 to 1991, together with sex ratios and average annual increases. Table 4.1.1
In the early twentieth century there were small fluctuations in the total population but by 1946 continuous growth had resumed so that in 1990 the total reached 10,985 followed by an accelerated growth of 46.6% reaching 16,108 by the 1991 census. The sex ratios presented in Table 4.1.1 reveal that growth had not occurred equally among both males and females particularly after 1946. The historical deficit of males from 1881 to 1946, a consequence of high levels of emigration, is shown as sex ratios declined to 0.85 in 1901 thereafter increasing to 0.98 in 1946. Owing to the low level of economic activities in the Territory in the 1920's, large numbers of the male labour force sought employment in the United States Virgin Islands and in the Sugar Industry of the Dominican Republic. The deficit of males disappeared after 1960 when the first large investments in tourism plant and infrastructure began, thus creating a local demand for construction and service workers. Another factor influencing the positive sex ratio after 1960 was the inflow of male migrant workers to fill the short fall of workers mainly for the tourism and construction industries. An examination of vital registration data in Tables 4.1.2 and 4.1.3 sheds further light on the population changes since 1970. The figures in Table 2 suggest the overall population growth of 1313 during the 1970's, the consequence of a natural increase (births minus deaths) to 1,833 being balanced by a residual net migration loss of 613 persons. Table 4.1.2
Table 4.1.3
The figures in Table 4.1.3 show that the overall population growth of 5,123 during the intercensal years 1980 to 1991 is the consequence of a natural increase (births minus deaths) of 1,969 being balanced by a net migration inflow of 3,154 persons. The net migration figure represents the difference between passenger arrivals and departures confined to non-British Virgin Islanders who reside permanently in the United States Virgin Islands as well as British Virgin Islanders. A comparison of the population growth for the intercensal periods 1970 to 1980 and 1980 to 1991 shows that the Territory moved from a net outward migration figure of 613 in the period 1970 to 1980 to a net migration inflow of 3,154 for the period 1980 to 1991. In addition the figures reveal that an outward migration figure of 446 males in the period 1970 to 1980 increased to a net inflow of 1,741 in the period 1980 to 1991. A similar change occurred in the female population when the net migration outflow figure of 167 females was increased to a net migration inflow of 1,413. The large inflow of immigrants consisting mainly of workers accompanied in some cases with their dependents during the period 1980 to 1991 was a consequence of an increase in the demand for labour which the local labour force could not supply due to its inadequate numbers and the lack of the range of skills demanded. This accelerated increase in the demand for labour also resulted from a sustained and expanding increase in economic activities mainly in tourism, construction, financial services, transportation and communication sectors of the economy from 1986 as shown in Table 4.1.4 below. Table 4.1.4
4.1.2 Demographic Characteristics The age and sex structure of the population in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1991 is described in Table 4.1.5 below. The 1980 and 1991 age distributions do not follow the pattern of other Caribbean countries in that they do not show a rapid depletion by emigration of residents after age 20. In the 1991 distribution, the 25 - 29 and 30 -34 age groups are actually somewhat larger than the 20-24 group, and it is only after age 34 that the cohorts shrink rapidly in size. The unusual age structure can be explained largely by the recent rapid structural transformation of the economy of the British Virgin Islands after 1960. Whereas the older cohorts experienced a pattern of heavy emigration as in the other Caribbean countries, the younger cohorts have emigrated less and recent emigration has been balanced and surpassed by substantial immigration of young adults mainly from Eastern Caribbean Islands. Other noteworthy features of the 1991 age distribution are, firstly the absence of a bulge in the pyramid at old ages that would result from heavy retirement immigration or return migration by persons born in the BVI who emigrated to find work, and secondly some indication of under cutting of the pyramid at the youngest ages that would indicate substantial increases in fertility in recent times. Table 4.1.5
The sex ratios by age groups for census years 1960, 1970, 1980 do not exhibit the steady decline with age which can be observed in most populations as a consequence of the generally lower mortality of females than males at all ages. Instead the pattern is irregular, probably as a result of sex selecting immigration and to some extent because of the small numbers involved. It is very unusual to find that almost all ages above 50 the ratios are above 100, as observed for census years 1980 and 1991 thus indicating that there are more males than females even in the oldest age groups. This indicates that retirement immigration or return migration is probably confined to males. Table 4.1.6
A comparison of the 1991 age distribution and sex ratio with similar figures for 1960, 1970 and 1980 which are also given in Tables 4.1.5 and 4.1.6, reveal that there have been dramatic changes in the age structure of the population of the B.V.I. over the past thirty years. The 1960 distribution shows clearly the effect of heavy and continued emigration, particularly between the ages 15 and 30. The number of persons at these ages is very small relative to the number under 15, and there is a substantial deficit of males in this age range, for example in the 20 - 24 age group there are only three males for every four females. By 1980 and continuing in 1991 this situation had changed markedly, and in most age groups males had become more numerous than females. Table 4.1.7
A broader comparison of the age distribution in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1991 is given in Table 4.1.8. This shows that the proportion of the population under 15 years has declined successively from 47.9% in 1960 to 27.2% in 1991. Correspondingly the proportion of the age group 15 - 44 has risen from 34.6% to 54.6% during the same period and the proportion aged 65 and over has remained more or less constant. The median age of the population has consequently risen from 16.1 in 1960 to 23.6 in 1980 and 27.7 in 1991. Among other things, these changes mean that both the labour force and the number of women of child bearing age are growing at a much faster rate than the overall population increase. On the other hand, the school population has grown relatively slowly so that although between 1960 and 1991 the total population increased by some 103.4%, the population under 15 years grew by only 15 percent. In contrast, the numbers aged 45 years and over have increased by 127.9% slightly higher than the increase in the total population. Overall, therefore, the general increase in the age of the population during the last thirty years has been accompanied by some marked changes in its age composition. The dependency ratio, that is the number of person at ages below 15 years and above 65 years divided by the number of persons between 15 years to 64 years, has declined steadily from 1.10 in 1960 to 0.8 in 1970, to .67 in 1980 and .49 in 1991. The British Virgin Islands currently enjoy a very favorable dependency ratio compared to the rest of the Commonwealth Caribbean. The population by islands shown in Table 4.1.8 indicates that well over 80% of the population live in Tortola including Beef Island and Frenchman's Cay and most of the remainder are in Virgin Gorda. Less than 5 percent of the total population live on the other islands. Table 4.1.8
Although in absolute terms most of the population increase over the past thirty years has been in Tortola, the small populations of the other islands have shown remarkable volatility, particularly since 1970. Virgin Gorda has more than doubled its size between 1960 and 1980, followed by an increase of 72.6% from 1980 to 1991. Conversely, the numbers living on Anegada and Jost Van Dyke are lower than in 1960. On the Other Islands the population doubled it size from 68 in 1970 to 156 in 1980 and declined to 144 in 1991. In Table 4.1.9, which shows the density of the various islands, Tortola is markedly more densely populated than the other islands with 154 and 223 persons per square kilometer in 1980 and 1991 respectively. Tortola accounts for 39.2 percent of the land area of the British Virgin Islands but accommodates over 80 per cent of the total population. Virgin Gorda the next densely populated island has a density of 64 and 114 persons per square kilometer in 1980 and 1991 respectively. The remaining islands combined are sparsely populated with a density of 6 persons per square kilometer. Table 4.1.9
The foreign born population of the British Virgin Islands comprise of 49.9 percent of the total population. The foreign population of 8,032 includes persons of the British Virgin Islands origin born abroad, persons from elsewhere in the Caribbean, including the U.S. Virgin Islands and immigrants from the metropolitan countries. It is important to realize that these figures cannot be used directly to estimate immigration because they exclude both immigrants who left or died before census, and persons born in the B.V.I. who emigrated and subsequently returned. A breakdown of the 1991 foreign born population by country of birth given shows that 17.7 percent come from St. Kitts/Nevis, 11.9 percent from St. Vincent, 9.5 percent from Guyana, 8.5 percent form the Dominican Republic, 8.0 percent form the United States of America, 27.4 percent for the other Commonwealth Caribbean Countries, 8.0 percent from Other Caribbean Countries 6.2 percent from U.K. and European Countries and the remaining 2.8 percent from the Rest of the World. Over 60 percent of the 1991 immigrant population stated that they entered the territory between 1980 to 1990 while 28.5 percent said that they had arrived before 1980.
The demographic outlook for the British Virgin Islands is obtained from a 30 year population projections from the 1991 Population and Housing Census to the year 2021. The projections were made employing the Cohort-Components Methods and were based on three (3) scenarios (low, medium and high) utilizing age/sex-specific assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration thanks to financial and technical assistance by ECLAC/CELADE. After reviewing the range of assumptions for the various scenarios the medium one was selected to represent the expected future demographic trends of the BVI. For the medium scenario, it is assumed that the fertility level will gradually increase from a TFR of 2.2 to 2.5 by the terminal year. This fertility assumption was maintained for the high scenario as it was deemed unrealistic to assume that the fertility level would exceed a TFR of 2.5. It was assumed that the positive net migration will increase by about 15% by the year 1996 and then remain constant thereafter until the terminal year. Table 4.2.1
All scenarios show that the population will continue to increase but at decreasing average annual rates of growth for each five year interval. The average annual rates of growth from the base to the terminal year were 1.60%, 1.95% and 2.20% for the low, medium and high scenarios respectively. These rates are to be compared with the average annual growth rate of 3.8% experienced for the period 1980 to 1991. However, by any comparison, these rates are considered very low, because even with the growth rate of 2.20% of the high scenario, the population of the British Virgin Islands will take about 35 years to double. Figure 4.2.1 It is projected that the sex ratio in the medium scenario, the scenario selected to represent the BVI demographic trends, will decrease in the long run. These movements or lack thereof are direct consequences of the migration assumptions used in the projections. It was assumed that immigration will continue to display a male dominance in view of the construction and industry type service jobs which would be created as a result of gross capital formation envisaged in the Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) and the private investment according to our National Integrated Development Plan (NIDP), 1995 - 1999. The present sex ratio - the main factor of the sex composition of the population - of the migrants is a very high 126 males per 100 females. Table 4.2.2
4.2.4 Age Composition and Dependency Ratios: The medium scenario indicated that the under 15 years percentage of the population will fall from 27.2% to 23.7% of the population during the thirty year period 1991 to 2021. Indications are that the working age population percentage will not change due to aging and the assumptions of immigration. On the other hand, substantial increases are likely to occur with the population 65-and-over- years. Figure 4.2.2
As a result of change in the population age structure there will be decreases in the young dependency (under 15 years) ratio and increases in the old dependency (65-and-older) ratios. While the increases in the young-dependency and the old dependency ratios are likely to fluctuate in the low scenario, the total dependency ratio (not including dependent residing abroad) is projected to increase from 48.8% in 1991 to 49.3% in 2021. Figure 4.2.3
Table 4.2.3
The movements of the age composition of the population determines whether the population "youngs" or "ages". All scenarios indicate that the population will become older with increases of 8.4 years, 6.2 years and 6.3 years for the low, medium and high scenarios respectively. According to convention, and based on these projections, the British Virgin Islands would be considered a population of "intermediate" age up until 1996 and a population of "old" age thereafter. The aging of a population is primarily a consequence of low fertility and high expectations-of-life levels. 4.2.6 Births and Deaths and Crude Rates: Figure 4.2.4
Arising from the fertility assumptions, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) will decrease from 19.72 to 17.12 during the projections period although the number of births per annual will grow by 40% during this same period. Births will increase but at a slower rate. Figure 4.2.5
The working age population is sub-divided into two groups, namely the "early working age (EPA)" (18-44 years) and the "late working age (LWA)" (45-64 years) populations. All scenarios show continuous increases in both groups with the LWAs showing dramatic increases while the EWAs shows substantial increases. It should be noted here however that the EWAs carry much more weight than the LWAs. The EWAs shows small increases and at increasing rates while the LWAs shows large increases but at decreasing rates. Therefore, there are much more persons entering the LWAs than persons entering the EWAs. For the base year, there are more than 3 times the number of persons in the EWAs as opposed to the number in the LWAs. By the terminal year, this gap would have narrowed to less than 12 times. This would result in more persons eventually leaving the work-force vis-a-vis persons entering the workforce, thus the increasing old-dependency ratio. Table 4.2.4
The school-age population is sub-divided into 4 groups, i.e preschool (0-4 years), primary (5-11 years), secondary (12-17 years) and tertiary (18-24 years) school-ages. Despite the scenario, the most dramatic increases are experienced in the secondary school-age population. The primary school-age population also shows some substantial increase for all scenarios. Because of the fertility assumptions, the low scenario shows a very small increase in the preschool school-age population. As per the medium and high scenarios, the tertiary school-age population which represented the highest population in the base year will be eventually exceeded by the primary school-age population. Figure 4.2.6
4.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES The future outlook, as suggested from the population projections, indicates among other things that the population will continue to grow and variables will change its structure over the reference period. Key variables indicating change are the sex ratio, age structure, birth rate, working age population and the school age population. These structural and absolute changes suggest a number of social economic, population and environmental imperatives which generally indicate the need for a new approach to managing these multidiciplinary activities. It is the realization of these structural changes, socioeconomic imperatives and new management approaches that lead us to select the integrated approach to development planing based upon the concept of strategic visioning. The increased population from 16,717 to 29,966 at the end of the projections period, cements the need to better manage the dimensions of population, the need for comprehensive and integrated social policies and the urgent need to build enabling avenues for better social integration. Indications are that the demand for public and other supportive social services will increase tremendously. Public services and private supportive services suggest an increased role for collaboration between the sectors. Environmentally, the use of natural resources such as beaches, recreational areas, agricultural lands and land for housing and infrastructure will become intense. The public sector will be required to invest more public resources in infrastructure and hardwares as well as to provide more resources on a recurring basis to cover operations. Projections indicate that immigration will continue to be a significant factor although decreasing in numbers over the years. This scenario coupled with past experience point to the need for development of a comprehensive social policy especially in the population dimension to ensure full socioeconomic integration of immigrants in the communities of the country respecting the vital interests of the nationals and naturalized immigrants. The demand for the full range of immigration and labour services will likely broaden and deepen. To achieve social integration of immigrants, it will be necessary to continue to expand and improve programmes of Information, Education and Communications (IEC) which focus on health, reproductive health issues and life skills to improve their quality of life. Immigration and labour policies will have to be reviewed and established within a humanistic framework which is consistent with our Human Resources Development and general Economic Development policies with respect to nationals. An immigration pattern with a 1.26 sex ratio and the age category of immigrants, suggests male dominance of the social background of the immigrants. It is absolutely essential that gender issues and the equalization of gender access and opportunity be given urgent and sustained attention. In this regard, an effective IEC programme will assume greater significance and will have to be administered on a wider basis, at an earlier age and through all segments of the society. IEC programmes will have to be designed with particular attention to the targeted segments and beneficiaries to ensure value for resources expended. The changed age structure revealing little or no change in the young and working age population with substantial increases in the old population signals the expansion of services to care and provide for this demographic reality. This situation suggests higher national insurance payments, increased and different health services and special recreation services targeted at an aging population. There is also the possibility that national insurance and the national health bill will have to increase to cope with the reality that persons longevity will be on the increase. Additionally, the aging of the population scenario will present new business opportunities and open up a new area of occupations for the country as the traditional phenomenon of family members providing care for the aged will disappear as they will be required to work. Although a falling birth rate is projected, the fertility rate will provide an increased absolute number of births by a greater number of mothers. This projected scenario advises that there will be greater demand for maternal and child health care services, health services in general and child care services. Additionally, mothering and parenting skills and children day care skills in a non-traditional family setting will have to be acquired by mothers and fathers alike. In terms of the public sector, this indicates the need for additional resources to implement programmes and to invest in physical infrastructure such day care centers and training facilities. Projections indicate that the early and late working population combined will grow from 10,846 to 18,937 during the period 1991 - 2021. The implications for this scenario is job creation, human resources development and proper manpower planning if a mismatch of the supply of and the demand for skills is not to occur. The economic imperatives of job creation is valid although it is indicated that a number of the jobs will be created for immigrants. Immigrants by definition in the BVI context are essentially guess workers who may only remain as long as they are gainfully employed or are a dependent remaining with permission. Planned investments and long term economic prospects show that global competition in the services provided by the BVI will require continued human resources development as well as serious attention to occupational and personal relationships. Increases in the school age population have resource implications for the capital and recurrent budgets in terms of capital outlay for the construction of facilities and operating expenses for wages, salaries and supplies, respectively. As well, the indication is that the tertiary age population (18 - 24 years) will eventually exceed the primary age population (5-11 years) highlighting the need for the allocation of more resources to tertiary education both locally for job skills development and externally for scholarships. In summation, the population projections covering the period 1991 - 2021 suggest that population will become one of the most critical factors in the development of the BVI. In this economic development scenario of the country, featuring tourism and international financial services within the context of limited and fragile natural assets together with acute indigenous human resource shortages, the need for integrated planning of economic, social, population and environmental related activities is apparent and highlighted. |
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