The
Development Planning Unit
Government of the British Virgin Islands

NATIONAL REPORT FOR THE ICPD - Continued

8. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

8.1 DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT

8.1.1 Population Size and Growth

The British Virgin Islands, one of the few remaining British Dependent Territories, are located on the Eastern Caribbean about sixty miles east of Puerto Rico. They comprise over forty islands with the most populated ones being Tortola, Virgin Gorda, Anegada and Jost Van Dyke. Tortola with a population of over 13,000 and an area of twenty one square miles is the center of government. The islands economy is based mainly on tourism and servicing of international business companies.

In the early twentieth century there were small fluctuations in the total population but by 1946 continuous growth had resumed so that in 1990 the total reached 10,985 followed by an accelerated growth of 46.6% reaching 16,108 by the 1991 census.

The large inflow of immigrants consisting mainly of workers accompanied in some cases with their dependents during the period 1980 to 1991 was a consequence of an increase in the demand for labour which the local labour force could not supply due to its inadequate numbers and the lack of the range of skills demanded. This accelerated increase in the demand for labour also resulted from a sustained and expanding increase in economic activities mainly in tourism, construction, financial services, transportation and communication sectors of the economy from 1986.

8.1.2 Demograpic Characteristics

The 1980 and 1991 age distributions do not follow the pattern of other Caribbean countries in that they do not show a rapid depletion by emigration of residents after age 20. In the 1991 distribution, the 25 - 29 and 30 -34 age groups are actually somewhat larger than the 20-24 group, and it is only after age 34 that the cohorts shrink rapidly in size. The unusual age structure can be explained largely by the recent rapid structural transformation of the economy of the British Virgin Islands after 1960. Whereas the older cohorts experienced a pattern of heavy emigration as in the other Caribbean countries, the younger cohorts have emigrated less and recent emigration has been balanced and surpassed by substantial immigration of young adults mainly from Eastern Caribbean Islands.

Other noteworthy features of the 1991 age distribution are, firstly the absence of a bulge in the pyramid at old ages that would result from heavy retirement immigration or return migration by persons born in the BVI who emigrated to find work, and secondly some indication of under cutting of the pyramid at the youngest ages that would indicate substantial increases in fertility in recent times.

8.1.3 Foreign Born Population

The foreign born population of the British Virgin Islands comprise of 49.9 percent of the total population. The foreign population of 8,032 includes persons of the British Virgin Islands origin born abroad, persons from elsewhere in the Caribbean, including the U.S. Virgin Islands and immigrants from the metropolitan countries. It is important to realize that these figures cannot be used directly to estimate immigration because they exclude both immigrants who left or died before census, and persons born in the B.V.I. who emigrated and subsequently returned.

 8.2 FUTURE OUTLOOK

The demographic outlook for the British Virgin Islands is obtained from a 30 year population projections from the 1991 Population and Housing Census to the year 2021. The projections were made employing the Cohort-Components Methods and were based on three (3) scenarios (low, medium and high) utilizing age/sex-specific assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration thanks to financial and technical assistance by ECLAC/CELADE.

8.2.1 Population Change

After reviewing the range of assumptions for the various scenarios the medium one was selected to represent the expected future demographic trends of the BVI. For the medium scenario, it is assumed that the fertility level will gradually increase from a TFR of 2.2 to 2.5 by the terminal year. This fertility assumption was maintained for the high scenario as it was deemed unrealistic to assume that the fertility level would exceed a TFR of 2.5. It was assumed that the positive net migration will increase by about 15% by the year 1996 and then remain constant thereafter until the terminal year.

8.2.2 Growth Rates

All scenarios show that the population will continue to increase but at decreasing average annual rates of growth for each five year interval. The average annual rates of growth from the base to the terminal year were 1.60%, 1.95% and 2.20% for the low, medium and high scenarios respectively. These rates are to be compared with the average annual growth rate of 3.8% experienced for the period 1980 to 1991. However, by any comparison, these rates are considered very low, because even with the growth rate of 2.20% of the high scenario, the population of the British Virgin Islands will take about 35 years to double.

8.2.3 Sex Ratios

It is projected that the sex ratio in the medium scenario, the scenario selected to represent the BVI demographic trends, will decrease in the long run. These movements or lack thereof are direct consequences of the migration assumptions used in the projections. It was assumed that immigration will continue to display a male dominance in view of the construction and industry type service jobs which would be created as a result of gross capital formation envisaged in the Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) and the private investment according to our National Integrated Development Plan (NIDP), 1995 - 1999. The present sex ratio - the main factor of the sex composition of the population - of the migrants is a very high 126 males per 100 females.

8.2.4 Age Composition and Dependency Ratios

The medium scenario indicated that the under 15 years percentage of the population will fall from 27.2% to 23.7% of the population during the thirty year period 1991 to 2021. Indications are that the working age population percentage will not change due to aging and the assumptions of immigration. On the other hand, substantial increases are likely to occur with the population 65-and-over- years.

8.2.5 Ageing

The movements of the age composition of the population determines whether the population "youngs" or "ages". All scenarios indicate that the population will become older with increases of 8.4 years, 6.2 years and 6.3 years for the low, medium and high scenarios respectively. According to convention, and based on these projections, the British Virgin Islands would be considered a population of "intermediate" age up until 1996 and a population of "old" age thereafter. The aging of a population is primarily a consequence of low fertility and high expectations-of-life levels.

8.2.6 Summary

The future outlook, as suggested from the population projections, indicates among other things that the population will continue to grow and variables will change its structure over the reference period. Key variables indicating change are the sex ratio, age structure, birth rate, working age population and the school age population. These structural and absolute changes suggest a number of social economic, population and environmental imperatives which generally indicate the need for a new approach to managing these multidiciplinary activities. It is the realization of these structural changes, socioeconomic imperatives and new management approaches that leads us to select the integrated approach to development planing based upon the concept of strategic visioning.

In summation, the population projections covering the period 1991 - 2021 suggest that population will become one of the most critical factors in the development of the BVI. In this economic development scenario of the country, featuring tourism and international financial services within the context of limited and fragile natural assets together with acute indigenous human resource shortages, the need for integrated planning of economic, social, population and environmental related activities is apparent and highlighted.

8.3 THE POPULATION POLICY, PLANNING AND PROGRAMME FRAMEWORK

8.3.1 National Perception of Population Issues

Population issues in the British Virgin Islands are perceived as a combination of issues particularly related to rapid immigration leading to or resulting in demographic problems, constraints imposed by demographic factors in the achievement of socio-economic development goals and unfavorable linkages between population, environment and development factors. Additionally, there are some secondary issues between population and the role, status and participation of women.

The fertility rate, a key indicator is virtually double for non-nationals and it is suspected, based on Family Planning records, that this is the case in respect of contraceptive prevalence. The question of low age at marriage is not really significant as cohabitation and child-bearing out of wedlock is significant between both nationals and non-nationals. Teenage pregnancy and the number of children of non-nationals remaining in their countries of origin have significant implications for our Education and Health systems in the event that they migrate to the BVI and our Balance of Payments system should they remain overseas. Contraceptive prevalence among non-nationals present problems as religious and cultural factors in the countries of origin are not easily forgotten despite our efforts at information, education and communication on this subject.

Census information leads us to conclude that the conventional dependency ratio cannot adequately reflect the true picture in the BVI as persons on their immigration application indicate that they have some 8,256 dependents living outside the BVI. The traditional dependency ratio provides a misleading picture of the economy in terms of savings ratio, household per capita income and spending etc. The traditional population and economic indicators, in the case of the BVI, overstate the economic well-being of the population being supported by the domestic workforce and in so doing substantially underestimate the magnitude of the social dimension as it relates to population issues.

8.3.2 Evolution of Population Policy in the BVI

Like most developing countries, a series of measures which amount to a Population Policy has evolved from population accommodating/response to population influencing as the impacts of a changing and growing population became more pronounced reality. As the demographic situation became more acute in response to the rapid economic growth, the Government found there was no alternative to immigration. The major strategy was to implement a combination of explicit and implicit policies which had the combined effect of exerting an impact on and influencing of the population structure.

In effect, population policies provide the strategy which has guided the economic development policies of the country over the last decade beginning with implicit policies during the economic boom, advancing to explicit and accommodating policies as the boom became sustained and temporary labour became permanent then moving to a humanistic approach to immigration policies today. In this regard, it is safe to conclude that the range and mix of population policies over the past three (3) decades have helped to resolve critical issues/situations arising from interrelations between population and socio-economic factors.

8.3.3 Current Status of Population Policy

As indicated in an earlier section, current population policy reflects a mix of influencing and accommodation policies which have been recently tempered with a more humanistic approach to immigration. Population policy focus was passive until it was recognized that natural, social and economic systems were approaching capacity and that population development in respect of health, education, information, growth and composition had to be managed in a more integrated way to ensure a better balance between social and economic sectors and sustainable development respecting the limits of our natural systems.

8.3.4 Population in Development Planning

As expected, population is the most critical variable in our development planning process; hence, demographic data and population information is critical for informing the medium and long terms planning processes at the national level. Sectoral planning, particularly as it relates to infrastructure, education, health and social welfare by necessity, is demanding more and more population related variables as input into the project cycle. As our orientation in development planning shifts from project planning to a more integrated orientation at the macro-level, our efforts at producing the full range of social and population statistics are being intensified.

Current institutional arrangements to assist with the incorporation of demographic data in development planning include the previously mentioned PPRAC, the annual Budgetary Process exercise and the National Planning Process. Our approach to development planning has shifted to a STRATEGIC VISIONING APPROACH in which the concept of integrated planning is the main focus. The main development strategy seeks to provide longer healthier and more productive lives for the people of the British Virgin Islands. The essence of this strategy is that population factors are being given equal weight with environmental, social and economic issues in the formulation of the NIDP.

This is the government's first attempt in 20 years at developing a National Development Plan. The previous plan was created in the early 1970s. One of the more salient features of this plan is the attempt at adopting an integrated approach. The Plan will comprise of eight basic components: fiscal policies and strategies; economic sectoral policies and strategies; macroeconomic policies and strategies; population strategies and policies; physical/spatial policies and strategies; environmental policies and strategies; social policies and strategies; human resources development strategies. The view being adopted is that all these components are interrelated and attempts will be made to create linkages among the different programmes and projects as well as to harmonize the related social, economic and population policies.

8.3.5 National Population Programme Profile

8.3.5.1 Maternal and Child Health and Family Planning Services

The implementation of MCH/FP services come under the National Health Programme and as such is administered by the Ministry of Health through hospitals and health care facilities with an adequate number of professional and support personnel.

The components of the programme includes antenatal, intranatal and postnatal health care services complemented by family planning and health education services. Child health care covers a well-developed and efficiently functioning programme of immunization, growth and nutrition monitoring and developmental monitoring. As well, programmes in school and adolescent health are part of the MCH/FP activities delivered without any cost recovery as the major thrust of national health policy. To deliver these MCH/FP services to the target population, clinic and Community Outreach service announcements are targeted at selected areas at strategic times are employed as secondary methods. Community Outreach methods include home and school visits, day care, postnatal dormisitary visits and periodic screening programmes.

As indicated earlier, the MCH/FP services programme is essentially a part of the national priorities on a recurrent basis; therefore, it is financed and implemented through the National Budget and the Annual Operating Plan, respectively. NGO's including women groups, family planning associations and HIV/AIDS interest groups run smaller and similar activities parallel to and integrated with the activities of the MCH/FP services programme on a regular basis as supplements. Services are well distributed with Health Centres in every district and the hospital in the largest population centre.

8.3.5.2 Population Information, Education and Communications

Population Information, Education and Communication (IEC) components of population activities are unfortunately concentrated in the more highly profile areas such as HIV/AIDS, Family Planning and the Prevention of Teenage Pregnancy. Further, the IEC components are normally not designed in the programmes as an integral activity but treated as a somewhat independent aspect of implementation. Further, yet in some instances, the IEC are targeted at very narrow segments of the population at times in an uncoordinated fashion.

8.3.5.3 Population Data Collection and Analysis

Institutional arrangement for data collection and analysis is co-ordinated by the Population Statistics and Affairs Division of the Development Planning and Statistics Department. Collection and analysis of data related to population fall under the general work plan for the social sectors; however, given the urgent and late developing concern for population issues, priority has been given to this area. In general, there is a substantial amount of raw data on family planning and migration. Most of the raw data is not yet in compliance with international standards, norms or convention thereby producing a comparability problem.

8.3.5.4 Women, Population and Development

Although the BVI, through the United Kingdom, recognizes gender equality as a human right under the provisions of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights, full effect has not been realized for women in an effort to improve the status of all income and class groups. Some institutionalized, legal and social forms of discrimination continues against women and girls. GBVI recognizes the need to empower women to improve their status relative to health, education and employment. The mixed results of the success of women empowerment is proof that the integration of women into the population and development as both participants and beneficiaries is most critical for socioeconomic development. There remains considerable concern in the areas of abuse and violence against women; accordingly, alleviation of this situation is given priority in the legal and social programmes agenda.

8.3.5.5 Mortality

All indicators of mortality including crude death rates, life expectancy and infant mortality have either improved notable or remained statistically consistent over the period 1983-1992. However, for several reasons one has to approach mortality trend statistics in the BVI with caution. In the first instance, the population is very small and changes of any significance in the number of deaths can result in wide changes in the indicators. Secondly, the procurement of health services overseas in nearby countries tend to have the effect of understating vital events should the patient die abroad in the case of older adults and babies. Notwithstanding the foregoing caution, it can be concluded that the BVI, from 1983 to 1992, has had access to adequate health care services as evidenced in the mortality levels achieved and maintained.

As can be seen from the other indicators, the British Virgin Islands has had and continues to maintain very favorable mortality levels. The fluctuations in all indicators are a direct result of the small magnitude of numbers that are involved in the computation of these mortality statistics. It is such that any changes in the numbers, no matter how small, causes drastic movements in the measures. Drastic changes which therefore will not necessarily be attributable to changes in the health status of the British Virgin Islands.

8.4 THE OPERATIONAL ASPECTS OF POPULATION AND FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

8.4.1 Political and National Support

Real support for the integration of population and other macro planning concerns particularly in terms of the implementation of population policies and programmes is evident in all segments of the community - at the political, social and economic levels. Clear moral and financial support is demonstrated at the highest political level, the private sector, non-profit organizations, the GRO and NGO sectors as evidenced in the magnitude of resources targeted at improving the status of the population.

8.4.2 National Implementation Strategy

The main mechanisms employed to formulate and implement activities proposed under the National Population Programme are to be found in the national planning process, the national budget process and the use of Non-governmental Organizations and the private sector. Before formulation of the NIDP population policies were formulated separately and apart from socioeconomic and environmental policies and strategies. Infact policies were formulated in an atmosphere or crisis or on an ad hoc basis. This essentially meant that policy integration and co-ordination were hardly present. Implementation was the responsibility of the individual departments or ministries and some co-ordination was only present if agencies or departments came functionally under the same ministry. Programme activities implemented by NGO's and the private sector were not co-ordinated with the activities of the Public Sector.

In summary, the national implementation strategy for the implementation of population activities is a decentralized one operated essentially through the financial and other procedures of the public services. Policies and strategies for progamme formulation and implementation are national in character and content except in the case of those by NGO's GRO's and the private sector.

8.4.3 Monitoring and Evaluation

Monitoring and evaluation of population programme activities that are decentralized to a number of organizations throughout the public service, although formalized, are not co-ordinated by a single unit. In this regard establishing the totality (scope, nature and characteristics) of the national population programme is difficult at best. In the experience of the BVI, this decentralization coupled with the lack of co-ordination has impacted negatively on our national ability to reformulate and refine programmes to meet unanticipated needs brought on by change, population dynamics especially due to rapid demographic changes such as immigration.

8.4.4 Financial Aspects

The process of resource mobilization is linked to the national budgetary process where priorities for population activities are linked to and are expected to be consistent with general development priorities. Resource allocations are guided by an assessment of the problem, determination of objectives (target population) and the overall quantum of resources and priorities on the national level.

Typically, resource mobilization is through the Central Government sources in addition to UNFPA financial and technical support of the Family Planning Programme and PAHO support of the HIV/AIDS Programme. Resources obtained through the annual budgets are complemented with the use of the Department of Information and Public Relations for IEC programme activities concerning Women Affairs, the HIV/AIDS Programme and other Population Programmes.

The expenditure pattern in respect of the financing of population activities shows that more than 90% has been financed from own resources. The element of cost recovery is demonstrated in user fees for some family planning services and some reproductive health services. Immigrants pay an annual fee for visa services and work permit holders pay a fee annually.

8.5 THE ROLE AND RELEVANCE OF THE WORLD POPULATION PLAN OF ACTION (WPPA) AND OTHER INSTRUMENTS

The central objective of the World Population Plan of Action (WPPA) is to foster the integration of population policies with those of social, economic and environment objectives. Many of the WPPA principles and objectives as well as the Bucharest and Mexico recommendations together with those of the Amsterdam Declaration continue to be relevant in our effort to involve the explicit consideration of population variables in development planning. By taking into account the impact of population factors on development and the implications of development goals, strategies and programmes for population variables, the BVI is following the principle aim of social, economic and environmental development in which population concerns are integral.

To overcome this range of constraints which present fundamental difficulties for the BVI, there must be more focus on an integrated package or integrating population activities with general development activities. The developed countries should ensure that the resources constraint are alleviated and that the political will, the legal framework and administrative mechanisms are left for the account of the developing countries.

8.6 NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR THE FUTURE

Not surprisingly so the national blueprint for action, addressing the emerging concerns arising out of demographic analysis, policy evaluation and operational interventions, is highlighted by research on demographic indicators and the impact of population growth, manifested in immigration, on social services and infrastructure, the environment and the economy in general.

8.6.1 Emerging and Priority Concerns

Immigration policies and strategies together with the subsequent impact on the economic, social, environmental and political realities have emerged as the most urgent priority for the attention of policy makers and the community in general. Concern for immigration issues are followed closely by recent concerns over crime, the eroding of families and family values and the deteriorating behavior of the youth. The increasing evidence of the commencement of social disintegration particularly related to children, women and young persons in general. Propensity to involve themselves with criminal, anti-social and non-traditional behavior of young males are becoming a serious concern.

8.6.2 Outlining of Policy Framework

To define the nature and character of the population policy framework, it is expected that immigration policies complemented by policies in human resources development particularly labour, education and health will be the primary focus. Secondary level policies will be designed to improve the status of women, children and adolescents. Finally the policy framework will address the unfavorably links between environment, population, economy and social phenomena related to housing, recreation, agricultural and fisheries. Policy in this regard will encompass the concept of sustainable development particularly related to production and the environment.

8.6.3 Designing of Programmatic Activities

The programmatic activities of a multi-sectoral nature are highlighted by the integration of population policies and strategies with social, economic and environmental policies and strategies. The development of a comprehensive population plan and a population policy statement together with the preparation of demographic data are, as well, salient elements of population activities. Programmatic activities include preparation, evaluation and implementation of projects for all major areas of population activities.

8.6.4 Resource Mobilization

It is estimated that over the period 1994-2000, activities categorized as the National Population Progranmme will amount to US $21.77m or an average of US $3.11m annually. These activities which take into account expenditure or (1) established programmes and interventions, (ii) consultancies and (iii) new and long term projects as identified in section 7.3 "Designing of Programmatic Activities. Average annual expenditures are projected to be US$2.83m (82%), US$0.19m (6%) and US$0.36m (12%) for established programmes and interventions, consultancies and new and long term projects, respectively.

National Population Report: Part 9>

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