Quarterly
Bulletin
Fourth Quarter 1999
Volume (4) No. (4) January , 2000
Main
Economic Indicators
Quarterly Bulletin Issued by the Development Planning Unit
1. Inflation Rates
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the final month (December) of 1999, stood at 120.2; up from 119.4 recorded in the previous month (November). One quarter earlier the index stood at 119.4 and a half year earlier it was 119.3. One year earlier the index stood at 119.3.
Insofar as the quarterly comparison is concerned, Food, Beverage & Tobacco and Clothing & Footwear (0.27 and 0.09 percent respectively) were the only two subgroups showing a decline. The other subgroups indicated the following; Housing up 0.15 percent, Furniture & Household Supplies up 2.63 percent, Transportation up 2.20 percent, Services up 0.45 percent and Miscellaneous up 1.82 percent.
The point -to-point monthly, quarterly, half-yearly and annual rates of inflation stood at 0.67, 0.67, 0.75 and 0.75 percent respectively.
|
|
4Q,97
|
4Q,98
|
3Q,99
|
4Q,99
|
|
Monthly
|
1.47
|
0.76
|
0.17
|
0.67
|
|
Annual
|
3.16
|
4.83
|
1.10
|
0.75
|
|
Annual
Average
|
5.97
|
4.53
|
3.34
|
2.34
|
Annual Inflation Rates
2.Foreign Exchange Rates
For the quarter under review, the US dollar turned in a mixed performance against key trading partner currencies, falling against the Euro, and holding steady against the Canadian dollar while rising against both the Yen and the Pound.
Compared to the third quarter 1999, the dollar lost 6.0% whereas it gained 3.0% in the third quarter. While the US dollar remained steady against the Canadian dollar, it fell 1.0% against the Pound but rose 3.0% against the Yen. In the third quarter 1999 the US dollar rose 1.0%, 4.0% and 16.0% against the Canadian dollar, the Pound and Yen, respectively.
|
|
At the End of
|
|
Currency
|
4Q,98
|
1Q,99
|
2Q,99
|
3Q,99
|
4Q,99
|
|
Eastern
Caribbean $
|
0.40
|
0.40
|
0.40
|
0.40
|
0.40
|
|
European
Currency
|
1.32
|
1.10
|
1.06
|
1.09
|
1.03
|
|
Canadian
$
|
0.68
|
0.68
|
0.69
|
0.70
|
0.70
|
|
British
Sterling
|
1.76
|
1.64
|
1.61
|
1.67
|
1.65
|
|
100
Japanese Yen
|
1.01
|
0.88
|
0.86
|
1.00
|
1.03
|
Currencies vs United States Dollar
3. Transaction with the Rest of the World
The export of tourist and financial services in combination with the imports of goods and services resulted in a 9.2% increase in the broad overall balance on the current account amounting to $38.2 million, compared to the previous quarter.
The fourth quarter, the start of the tourist season, saw imports rise 21.8% to $99.7 million because of a 57.8% rise in the imports of goods and 0.1% fall in the level of services imported. On the other hand, the level of goods export rose 23.9% to $0.6 million as exports of tourist and financial services jumped 18.0% to give an aggregate of $137.9 million for the review quarter.
The overall balance at the end of the review period expanded 87.3% from $20.4 compared to the like quarter 1998.
|
Item (US
$’000)
|
4Q,
97
|
4Q. 98
|
3Q,
99
|
4Q, 99
|
|
Imports:
|
93,871
|
103,303
|
81,862
|
99,672
|
|
Goods
|
53,876
|
58,583
|
31,133
|
49,118
|
|
Services
|
39,994
|
44,750
|
50,728
|
50,554
|
|
Exports:
|
116,289
|
123,715
|
116,868
|
137,908
|
|
Goods
|
335
|
465
|
481
|
596
|
|
Services
|
115,954
|
123,715
|
116,387
|
137,312
|
|
Balance
|
22,418
|
20,412
|
35,005
|
38,235
|
Current Account: Major Components ($'000)
4. Money Indicators
Compared to the previous quarter, the banking sub-sector was highlighted by a 3.0% rise in average prime interest rate, a 1.8% rise in bank assets and liabilities, a 1.6% expansion in loans outstanding and an 11.6% increase in total deposits.
The performance of the retail banking sector was also highlighted by total deposits jumping beyond the $1.0 billion dollar mark as a result of 16.4% rise in CD's a 2/10 percent rise in savings deposits and a 7.4% increase in demand deposits (chequing accounts). Compared to the like quarter one year earlier, total deposits rose 22.7% as CD's increased 22.2%, savings deposits 2.8% and demand deposits 42.2%.
Loans outstanding, roughly representing credit outstanding, rose 17.7% compared to the like quarter of the previous year. Similarly, bank assets and liabilities rose 11.07% and the average prime interest remained unchanged at 8.50%. In summary the retail banking sub-sector was characterized by a widening gap between deposits and loans, a slight growth in assets and liabilities and an almost steady average prime interest rate.
|
Money Indication (US’000)
|
4Q, 97
|
4 Q. 98
|
3 Q, 99
|
4 Q, 99
|
|
Demand
Deposits
|
158,663
|
176,778
|
233,983
|
251,302
|
|
Savings
Deposits
|
149,063
|
160,693
|
164,771
|
165,121
|
|
Certificates
of Deposits
|
435,106
|
559,820
|
587,552
|
684,175
|
|
Total
Deposits
|
740,832
|
897,291
|
986,306
|
1,100,598
|
|
Index
of Deposits
|
233
|
282
|
310
|
346
|
|
Loans
Outstanding
|
344,293
|
422,453
|
489,414
|
497,256
|
|
Index
of Loans
|
213
|
261
|
302
|
307
|
|
Prime
Interest Rate
|
8.50
|
8.50
|
8.25
|
8.50
|
Indices of Deposits and Loans
5. General Business Indicators: Trade Licences Paid
Riding the sustained wave of economic growth and widespread entrepreneurial opportunity, the index of trade licences operating rose to 194 compared to the number operating at the end of 1990.
The almost doubling of the number of business during the last decade is indicative of the sustained economic activities in the domestic market. Due to seasonality in renewal of licences and the formation of new businesses, the number of trade licences approved and the number renewed dropped 25% and 33%, respectively compared with the third quarter 1999.
|
Category
|
4Q, ‘97
|
4Q, ‘98
|
3Q. 99
|
4Q. 99
|
|
Approved Licences
|
36
|
82
|
65
|
49
|
|
Renewal Licences
|
364
|
288
|
192
|
129
|
|
No. of Licences Operating
|
2,912
|
3,501
|
3,566
|
3,615
|
|
Index of Licences Operating
|
156
|
188
|
192
|
194
|
Quarterly Issue of Trade Licences
6. General Business Indicators: Companies Incorporated
As the BVI develops, we expect to see a definite preference for the corporate form of business companies round into shape. More and more, business persons are expected to form companies to obtain better defined legal and financial frameworks for doing business. One such indication is the increased formation of limited partnerships and local companies.
According to the Registrar of Companies from the Department of Financial Services new local companies formed during the review period were equal to the number formed in the fourth quarter of 1998 and 21.7% greater than formation seen in the third quarter 1998. The index of local companies incorporated the fourth quarter.
|
|
4Q. 97
|
4Q. 98
|
3Q. 99
|
4Q. 99
|
|
New
Local Companies
|
39
|
56
|
46
|
56
|
|
Index
of Companies
|
91
|
193
|
| |
The
