The
Development Planning Unit
Government of the British Virgin Islands

NIDS POPULATION

“People don’t plan to fail, they fail to plan”

Introduction

“In the midst of this age of plenty, the standard of living for much of the world is declining, their poverty and economic backwardness are increasing, their share of the world’s population is growing. In the world community of nations, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer…First among causes is the rapid overwhelming and utterly unprecedented world population explosion.” John F. Kennedy…As president Kennedy foresaw, and as subsequent policymakers have recognized, population growth is a primary cause of numerous social and economic problems. Growing populations strain transportation, education and energy systems. More people require more services, from police protection to health care. Population pressures cause internal and international migration, exacerbate ethnic tensions, drive wars and civil unrest. Virtually every important issue we confront today is increased in severity by population growth. And unless this growth is checked, it may prove impossible to solve these issues. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993)

Many developing countries (and developed countries alike) are today facing major social, economic and environmental problems because of the sheer size of their populations. To compound the problems, the rate at which some populations continue to grow stifles the development effort to alleviate the problems.

Population in its strictest sense means “people”. The study of population is concerned primarily with its demographic characteristics, which include actual size, spatial distribution, age and sex composition and changes in its growth patterns. Other areas of interest include social and economic characteristics of the population. The social characteristics include race, religion, nationality, language, marital status, family composition, place of birth, literacy, health status, educational status, crime and poverty. The economic characteristics include employment/unemployment, occupation, industry and income. Changes in these characteristics all have implications for social and economic development of a country and the environment in which the population is expected to live.

There are three (3) factors that affect the development of and change in population characteristics – namely fertility, mortality and migration. While fertility serves as an additive, mortality serves as a subtractive. Migration, on the other hand, is two-faced and can affect population in both ways. It therefore follows that if efforts are to be made to control the characteristics of the population, these factors would have to be influenced (especially fertility and migration).

The main characteristic of the population that outweighs all others in terms of interest and priority is that of population size. And, the emphasis here is placed on the rate at which this size is increasing. One indicator that is used to give a more dynamic impression of the rate of growth of the population is the “doubling time”. This measure indicates the time in which a country would virtually have to double its efforts to cope with and accommodate its population. This means that twice as much social and economic services and infrastructure would have to be provided and the burden placed on natural resources would be doubled.

Consider the following statement.

The 3 billion mark was…surpassed by 1960, by which time it became clear … that a doubling of this number before the end of the century was all but inevitable… (Demeny; Population and Development Review, Volume 14, Number 3, September 1988)

This meant that the world population would double in about 40 years. This anticipated demographic expansion worried demographers very much as this was foreseen as inherently problematic. Because of high fertility rates, growth rates, around this time, were in the range of 2-3 percent per annum. These rates would have to drop significantly to appease the population problem. The way it was proposed to achieve this reduction was through education and family planning. At these rates, between 60 and 90 million persons would be added to the population annually. This would be the equivalent of adding a new Germany, two South Africas, or four Taiwans every year. Population growth of this magnitude could result in congestion and cause numerous social and economic problems and exert intense pressure on available resources. If countries cannot rise to this challenge, some of the results would be an increase in poverty, social disintegration, economic instability, migration, resource depletion, environmental degradation, ethnic tensions and civil unrest to name a few. With these kinds of unfavourable conditions, it would be difficult for countries to achieve “sustainable development”. Sustainable development is defined as “development that satisfies the need of the present without exhausting the resources that are necessary for fulfilling the needs of future generations”. It now becomes clear why countries are very concerned about curbing the rate at which population grows. Because, the sole underlying reason for striving towards sustainable development is to attain and maintain good social, economic and environmental conditions for the population.

UNDP suggests three guiding principles in the achievement of sustainable development. They are:

1. Put people first
   
2. Growth is not an option but rather a must for developing countries. The challenge however, will be to experience growth that is environmentally friendly since both the rate and quantity of growth will have negative environmental implications.
   
3. Environmental priorities have to be set within the national, regional and global context.

Just as the present size of the population is very important, so is the future (estimated) size. It is pertinent to know how many people the country will have to cater for in the future. Population projections are done to estimate the future size of the population. These are done based on logical and justifiable assumptions (either from observations, past trends or expectations) of the future behaviour of the three factors (fertility, mortality and migration) of population change. Three projections are normally made (low, medium and high). Each variant is based on different assumptions of the three main factors. This is to give a range of the likely magnitude and distribution of the future population.

Background

The British Virgin Islands (BVI) is a string of some 40 islands, which accumulates to some 154 km2. The islands are situated approximately 60 miles east of Puerto Rico. The country still remains a British dependent territory and the three main islands are Tortola, Virgin Gorda and Anegada.

In 1881, the census conducted in the BVI yielded 5,287 persons. By 1901, a slight depopulation was experienced when 4,901 persons were counted. The population showed some fluctuations between this census and the one of 1946. Around this time, the economy of the British Virgin Islands was dominated by agriculture and fishing. This economic situation encouraged persons to migrate to the Dominican Republic, United States Virgin Islands (USVI) and, to a lesser extent, the United States (US) mainland to secure more gainful employment.

In 1959, the United States currency was made a legal tender of the British Virgin Islands. In 1967 it was made the only legal tender of the country. By 1960, the population had reached 7,921 and by 1970 it was up to 9,672 persons. Between 1960 and 1970, the economy started to show signs of vibrancy. This increased economic activity began to change the migration tides and encouraged an inflow of immigrants that was steadily gaining momentum. Whereas, the BVI was previously a net exporter of persons, by 1980 the country was a net importer of persons. The status of net importer would have been realised earlier, but from as early as 1970 and up to the early 1980’s, the BVI was used largely as a thoroughfare for migrants destined for the USVI and the US mainland. Also, by this time the emigration of nationals was substantially reduced since it was more education-motivated rather than employment-motivated. By 1980, the population had passed the 10,000 mark, and by 1991 it had surpassed 16,000. While the population of the country took from 1881 to 1960 (80 years) to increased by 2,634 persons (49.8%), it took from 1961 to 1991 (31 years) to increase by 8,195 persons (103.5%). And, 5,131 or 62.6% of this increase was experienced between 1981 and 1991 (11 years) due to an unprecedented growth rate of 3.48% per annum. The population of the BVI had more than doubled in just around 30 years. The population density of the country increased from 109.7 in 1946 to 273.2 persons per square mile in 1991. (See table 2).

Relatively high birth and mortality rates were characteristic of the BVI up to 1980. The Crude Birth Rates (CBR ) were 35.2, 30.3 and 24.8 for 1960, 1970 and 1980 respectively. The Crude Death Rates (CDR ) were 11.2, 6.8 and 6.3 for the same respective years. The BVI embarked on its Demographic Transition around 1980 and had basically completed it by 1991. The CBR was down to 18.2 and the CDR was down to 4.6. With the high birth rates that prevailed up to 1980, fertility was the dominant factor driving the growth of the population in the BVI. With the lowering fertility rates and the rapidly increasing influx of migrants between 1980 and 1991, migration had taken over as the main contributor to population growth in the country. Between 1970 and 1980, there was negative net migration but between 1980 and 1991 positive net migration accounted for 61.6% of the total population growth. (See table 1)

Table 1: Components of Population Change, 1970-1980 and 1980-1991

The 1991 census counted 8,035 immigrants. The data indicated that there were 123 migrants living in the BVI who came prior to 1960. Just over 600 came between 1960 and 1970; 1, 286 came between 1970 and 1980; and 5,941 came between 1980 and 1991. There were 73 migrants who did not state the year they came to the BVI. By 1980, around 35% of the population were immigrants. This percent jumped to almost 50% by 1991.

The proceeding population pyramids offer a visual of how the size and structure of the population of the BVI has changed between 1946 and 1991

• 1946: high fertility, high mortality high emigration.
  
• 1960: high fertility, high mortality and high emigration.
  
• 1970: high fertility, medium mortality and low emigration.
  
• 1980: medium fertility, low mortality and low immigration
  
• 1991: low fertility, low mortality and high immigration.

As can be seen from the preceding population pyramids, the age and sex distribution of the BVI has changed dramatically over the years. The influx of migrants was mainly responsible for this evolution. Sex ratios were in the favour of females up until 1970. The share of the young (< 15 years old) fell from a high 41.7% in 1946 to a very low 27.2% in 1991. The active population commanded a share of 51.7% in 1946 and increased this to 67.2 by 1991. The percent of old persons in the population showed some fluctuations from 1946 to 1991 and ended up with a slight decrease for the same period. The median age of the population of the BVI moved from a low of 16.1 years in 1960 to a high of 27.6 years in 1991. (See table 2)

Table 2: Age and Sex Structure of the Population and Population Density, 1946 – 1991

Immigration is the major force driving the population growth of the BVI. Between 1980 and 1991, the population grew at a whooping pace of 3.48% per annum. If such a rate were to continue, the population of the country would double in just under 20 years. This rate is second to none in the world. Africa (among the least developed countries in the world) with its rate of almost 3% will double its population in about 24 years, and Asia (excluding China) will double its population in about 36 years if present conditions are allowed to continue. The issue here is whether the social, economic and natural systems of the BVI can cope with the pressures associated with this exceptionally high rate of growth.

The one consolation however, is that, while the other countries (compared to earlier) will experience the population growth in the young segment of their populations, the growth in the BVI would be concentrated in the active segment of the population. Therefore, there would not be much demand placed on the social services, and since such growth is in itself a consequence of economic expansion, there is not so much of a problem from the economic perspective. However, the question is, can the natural and man-made resources and the environmental capacity of the BVI accommodate such a rapid increase in population growth? Other issues associated with immigration-type population growth are social integration/disintegration, cultural clashes, ethnic groupings, break down in family structure, ghetto creation and crime. The reality is that as long as the economy of the BVI continues to expand (which is what is desired), there will exist an inevitable need for immigration. Consequently, substantial population growth will occur when this is coupled with the contribution from fertility. This situation will not change in the foreseeable future. However, since fertility is already at level hovering around the replacement level, the challenge for the BVI would be to put measures in place, which would serve to monitor, control and keep this type of growth in check and not allow it just to happen arbitrarily.


Situation Analysis

Demographic Issues

Population Growth Rate, Size and Age and Sex Composition

The traditional Malthusian concern is that population growth will sooner or later run up against the limits of earth’s finite stock of resources…In the 20th century this argument has been extended to the availability of energy and minerals, the effect of rising environmental pollution, and so on. (World Development Report 1984, p80)

However, Julian Simon’s book, The Ultimate Resource argues completely opposite and states that;

The ultimate resource is people – skilled, spirited, and hopeful people – who will exert their wills and imagination for their own benefit and so, inevitably, for the benefit of us all…More people implies more ideas, more creative talent, more skills, and thus better technology; in the long run population growth is not a problem but an opportunity. (World Development Report 1984, p80)

In response to these opposing viewpoints, it was stated that;

The difficulties caused by rapid population growth are not primarily due to finite natural resources…But neither does rapid population growth itself automatically trigger technological advance and adaptation. If anything, rapid growth slows the accumulation of skills that encourage technological advance. (World Development Report 1984, p80).

A country is said to have rapid population growth when it grows at a rate above 2%. Presently, the population of the BVI is estimated to be growing at a rate around 2.3% per annum. If this rate of growth continues, the population will double in the next 30 years. It should be noted here that this estimate is a very conservative one given the 3.48% at which the population grew between 1980 and 1991. At this rate it would double in less than 20 years. The estimated size of the population in 1996 was 18,737 persons. This would be an addition of 2,621 person since 1991, an average of about 525 persons per year. The sex ratio will remain basically constant at around 106 between 1992 and 1996. The age distribution of the population will continue to change. From 1992 and 1996, the proportion of young and elderly in the population continue to experience a decrease (though small) while that of the active segment continue to register an increase. The median age of the population will continue to increase gradually. (See table 3).

Table 3: Population, Sex Ratio and Age Composition, 1992

Fertility and Reproduction

Fertility rates in the BVI are relatively low. Based on the records of the hospital, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was around 1.8 between 1992 and 1996. A review of the 1991 census data revealed that the TFR of the BVI was underestimated by some 25%. This underestimation is due to the inability to capture births occurring outside the territory to women resident in the BVI. An adjustment to the TFR to account for these births would put the TFR for the BVI just over the replacement level.

Table 4: Components of Population Change, 1992 - 1996

The recommendation of the UN agencies is that countries reduce their TFR to or below the replacement level sooner rather than later in an effort to stabilize population growth. One of the critical assumptions of the World Bank when projecting population is that:

Fertility will eventually reach and stay at replacement level everywhere. When that will occur obviously varies from country to country, depending on current fertility levels, recent trends and family planning efforts. (World Development Report 1984, p74).

Despite efforts, Africa still has TFR at 5.6 and Asia (excluding China) at 3.5. That of Europe is well below replacement level. The world’s TFR now stands at about 3.0.

Family planning and the education of women have been shown to be the two most effective ways to reduce fertility levels. Therefore, countries and donor agencies are encouraged to invest appropriately in these two areas.

In the 1960’s, when the first [family planning] programs got into second gear, a program cost of five dollars per “birth averted” was often seen as a rule-of-thumb estimate for a typical developing country… as President Lyndon Johnson claimed at the twentieth-anniversary celebration of the United Nations in San Francisco, less than five-dollars invested in population control was worth a hundred dollars invested in economic growth. (See Piotrow, 1973: 90) (Demeny, Population and Development Review, Volume 14, Number 3, September 1988).

And,

“If you educate them, then you will have to let them choose.”…More than any other investment, the education of girls and women is key to enhancing their status and critical to the development process itself. The empowerment of women through education…and health care, is among the goals set forth in the Programme of Action adopted at the ICPD…A healthy, educated woman is better able to participate in the development of her community and more likely to take her full part in decisions about marriage and childbearing. (UNFPA, Population Issues Briefing Kit).

If women have access to family planning and are educated then they can take responsibility for their reproductive habits. This can go a long way in curbing rapid population growth. In the BVI, practically all women have access to family planning and education. Fertility accounted for around 44.8% of the population increase in the BVI between 1992 and 1996.

Spatial Distribution (Population Density)

Rapid population growth can lead to congestion (overpopulation). Problems such as unemployment, housing shortages, poor sanitation conditions, water shortages, environmental damage, crime, poverty and diseases are all associated with population congestion. Whether an area is overpopulated or not is determined by the concentration of persons (population density) and the available resources.

In 1992, the population density of the BVI was 105 persons per km2. This density increased to 123 by 1996. Among the large countries (> 5000 km2), this compares to Puerto Rico (419.4), Taiwan (603.1), USA (28.4) and Japan (333.2). Among smaller countries (< 5000 km2), it compares to Macau with 31.064.8, Monaco 16,703.0, Hong Kong 5,323.3, Gibraltar 4,934.1 and Singapore, 4617.6 (World Fact Book, 1995, CIA, USA). Do countries with small population densities have the capacity to accommodate more people and are those with large densities overpopulated? Brian Carnell’s response to the subject of overpopulation was:

Maybe overpopulation refers to an upper limit on population density. Yet some of the most densely packed areas on Earth are also some of the most economically successful, while some parts…with very low population density ratios are also some of the poorest, most starvation-prone. Or perhaps overpopulation occurs when population growth outstrips available resources… (Brian Carnell: p1).

The population density is a simple measure, which shows the relationship between the population, and the area in which it lives. This measure is not concerned with other factors such as terrain, coastal areas and level of economic activity. However, these are the precise factors that determine the spatial distribution of the population. An example of uneven spatial distribution is the case of Italy. This country has a population density of 190 and 70% of the population lives on 13 of the land area. While the population density of the USA is about 28, the northeast of the country averages a density of almost 300.

In the BVI, while Tortola, the main island where most of the economic activity is concentrated, accounts for 36% of the land area, it consistently accommodates over 80% of the population. In 1996, the population density of Tortola was 283.

Social Issues

Immigration

Immigration is a common phenomenon in the world today. Individual readily cross borders for the purpose of employment or other reasons. In many instances, this movement is of a permanent nature. Whereas this phenomenon was more common among males, females are now just as likely to move.

The population of the United Stated grows on average 2.5 millions person each year. It is estimated that immigration contributes over 1 million or over 40% of this 2.5 millions. Nearly every poll conducted in the U.S. on immigration has shown that the American people want less migration (NPG: Facts and Figures). In comparison, of the population growth experienced in the BVI between 1992 and 1996, immigration accounted for 55.2%. Through this immigrant-dominated population growth, the “table has now turned”, insomuch as population share is concerned, to favour immigrants. It was estimated that in 1996, 50.3% of the population were immigrants.

Host countries generally benefit from immigration; in the Middle East migrants form an indispensable part of the labour force. Host countries can also select immigrants whose skill and qualifications suit their pattern of demand. Immigration…provides a flexible source of supply, enabling receiving countries to adapt more quickly to changes in demand than they could do without immigration. (World Development Report: p100) 

Between 1969 and 1979, the United Stated received nearly 500,000 Professional and Technical workers. (World Development Report: p102).

The 1991 census data showed that 53.6%, 65.1% and 52.2% of all Managers, Professionals and Assistant Professional/Technicians were immigrants. Almost 70% of degree holders and 76.0% of persons with Diplomas in the BVI were immigrants. This is an indication of the extent of the “brain gain” that the BVI experiences from migration.

But just as the economic gains (for the host country) from migration are considered, so must be the social tensions that may result due to the unfavourable social atmosphere that might be created. Consider the impact that immigration has had on the socio-economic characteristics of the BVI. The 1991 census data revealed that:

1. Of the working labour force, 61.6% were immigrants.
   
2. Almost 80% of all nuclear family households contained at least one immigrant.
   
3. Of all single households, 63.3% were headed by immigrants.
   
4. Of all single households with child/ren, 54.5%were headed by immigrants.
   
5. About 32% of immigrant headed households had no spouse residing with them. Of these households, 20% were headed by married individuals.

There are also consequences for the sending countries of immigrants. On the negative side is the separation of families and on the positive side is the receipt of remittances.

An additional benefit is the money that emigrants send back home. It serves not only to increase the incomes of their families but also to help finance their country’s trade deficit. Workers remittance increase from about $3 billion in 1970 to $27 billion in 1980…Many countries have special schemes to attract remittances…With this new source of income, the living standards of many families improve significantly…families tend to repay debts and invest their extra income. (World Development Report: p101).

Remittances were estimated at $37 billion in 1990 (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993)

The 1991 census indicated that immigrant women produced 6,516 children of which 1521 were resident in the BVI. This would leave some 5,000 children still living outside the BVI. For 1992 and 1993 alone, immigrants were estimated to have repatriated some USD 15 millions for savings and to have remitted in excess of USD 40 millions for the maintenance of children and other family members. Given the continued employment –motivated influx of migrants, the repatriation of earnings would only be exacerbated.

Marriages and Family

The marital/union status of the population has a profound effect on population dynamics such as fertility and family structure. The importance of fertility to the study of population cannot be over-emphasized, as it is one of the three main players in the population-growth equation. Family structure, on the other hand, becomes important from the standpoint of its influence on the social behaviour of children and adolescents. Studies have shown that children who emerge from the (nuclear) family setting were apt to have a better social demeanor than those coming out of (say) the single-parent setting. Marriage (or rather the absence of it ) affects fertility in that it serves as a delay mechanism. Child bearing is, in most societies, to a large extent prevalent within the confines of marriage and the longer individuals avoid marriage, the longer child bearing is postponed, although such is not the case in the BVI. Between 1992 and 1996, of children born in the BVI, on average 60% were of an illegitimate status. In 1980, the average age of marriage of the general population was 42.4 years. This average age increased to 42.7 years by 1991.

Given the continued inflow of immigrants, who, in many instances are young and unmarried, the percentage of married person in the BVI continued to decrease. The percent of the population that were married in 1980 was 48.0%. This percent had fallen to 41.6% by 1991 and is expected to decline even more. The profound effect of this is seen in the family structure.

Despite changing social mores and economic transformations, the family remains the basic unit of all societies. But migration…increased labour force participation by women, cuts in government spending on health and other social services, and the results of growing interdependence in the global economy are all exerting pressure on the family. Around the world, family support networks are on the decline and the proportion of single-headed households is growing. In the United States, the growing number of female-headed households, including those headed by never-married women, is one factor contributing to the feminization of poverty in that country. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

In 1980, 25.4% of all households were headed by females. This percent had increased to 28.7% by 1991. The incidence of single headed households (with or without children) was at a high of almost 36% in 1991. The preferred nuclear family arrangement was down to 36% of households by 1991.

Ethnicity

The ethnic composition of a country, while in most instances does not pose a problem, has lead to social tensions as mild as verbal clashes to confrontations as extreme as genocide. Two of the more extreme cases include (i) the attempted annihilation of Tutsi and moderate Hutu by Hutus in Rawanda in 1994, and (ii) the debilitating war between Moslems, Croats and Serbs in Bosnia between 1992 and 1994.

The BVI has a predominantly black population, but, due to mass immigration over the last decade or so, the country has been experiencing continued ethnic mixing. Consequently, there has been a small erosion of the black prominence. Between 1980 and 1991, while the population share of Blacks declined by 5.3% that of East Indians more than trebled posting an increase of 2.2 percentage points. The Mixed ethnic group showed a significant increase. The proportion of whites in the population remained relatively constant. There could be some social implications to the rapid increase in the percent of the East Indians and Mixed ethnic groups. The magnitudes of these groups are relatively small, but they are increasing at a phenomenal rate. History has shown that the rapid concentration of any one ethnic group in a foreign country could lead to some social situations which may not necessarily be in line with the prevailing subscriptions of a small country .

Poverty 

Poverty is an integral part of the population puzzle. Poverty is linked to social breakdown, domestic violence, unintended pregnancy, illegal drug use and…violent crimes. Whether population growth causes poverty, or whether poverty causes population growth is a matter of great debate. But what is clear is that, despite remedial efforts poverty is increasing. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

United Nations International Conference on Population and Development reported “Poverty is often accompanied by unemployment, malnutrition, illiteracy, low status of women, exposure to environmental risk and limited access to social and health services…All these factors contribute to high levels of fertility, morbidity, and mortality, as well as low economic productivity.” (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

The relative poverty rate in the United States in 1996 was estimated at 13.7% (U.S. Census Bureau). A study done in 1994, using the relative approach to poverty analysis found that 17.7% of all households in the BVI were relatively poor in 1991 – i.e. they had an “adult equivalent scale ” household per capita income below USD 310.00. 

The percent of poor households with certain characteristics are as follows.

1. Single-parent households with children (33.8%).
   
2. Freeholders of land (22.9%).
   
3. Owned Dwelling (23.7%).
   
4. Elderly Heads (48.5%).
   
5. Female Heads (24.2%).
   
6. Inactive Heads (63.9%).

The shortcomings associated with the income data were mentioned. And, it was found that households headed by persons affected by these shortcomings were the ones more apt to be poor. For example, households headed by elderly persons suffered a high incidence of poverty. But a closer look at these heads revealed that they possessed considerable assets. Most of them had their own house and land. The majority of households in the British Virgin Islands had access to the basic facilities and amenities.

Crime

In India – the world’s fastest growing nation and the second most populous – there is a strong correlation between population growth, environmental degradation and communal violence. Between 1955 and 1985, total population nearly doubled, while the incidence of communal violence increased sevenfold…Similar increases in violence relative to population growth can be seen in such diverse locations as Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Lagos, Nigeria and Dacca, Bangladesh. Studies in the United States have also shown a correlation between city size and crime rate, with larger cities generally suffering more crime per capita than smaller cities. Even more significant are recent studies in some major US cities which indicate a strong correlation between violent crime, poverty and overcrowding. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation reported that the crime rate (for all crimes reported) of the U.S. was 58.2, 59.0, and 56.6 offences per thousand population for 1990, 1991 and 1992 respectively. For the same respective years, the rate was 65.5, 66.2 and 62.7 for the metropolitan areas. For 1994, the crime rate for Japan was 14.3, USA 53.7, Germany 80.4, France 67.8, and UK 97.9.

The crime rate of the BVI fluctuated between 1990 and 1995; hitting a low of 45.6 criminal offenses per thousand population in 1991 and a high of 65.0 in 1993. (See table 3).

Table 5: Criminal Offenses Reported and Crime Rate, 1990 - 1996

Vulnerable Groups

Women, children (<15 years) and the elderly (≥65 years) are considered the vulnerable groups. While the percentage of women in the population remained almost constant over the years, that of children has dropped significantly. The percentage of the elderly in the population has shown a small decrease over the years. Because of their socio-economic status, these groups are often more susceptible to the vagaries of poor economic performance. When the status of a woman is improved, in most instances, this translates to an improvement in the status of children.

Women

The status of women in the BVI has improved considerable over the years. Table 4 gives an indication as to how the status of women has improved between 1980 and 1991.

Table 6: Indicators of the Status of Women, 1980 and 1991

Children

Education is the first step towards ensuring a good status for individuals. The BVI has a law, which makes it mandatory that all children between the ages of 5 and 16 years old attend school. The 1991 census revealed that practically all children (99%) between the ages of 6 and 9 years old attend school. Over 97% of those between the ages of 10 and 16 years old were attending school. Enrollment rates at both the primary and secondary levels continue to be very high. Table 3 shows the enrollment rates for 1992 to 1996.

Table 7: Enrollment Rates by Sex, 1992 – 1996

The Elderly

The 1991 census data indicated that practically no elderly person was unemployed. Those who wanted to work were concentrated in Agriculture and Fishing and Elementary occupations. Some were also employed as Legislators / Managers and Craft and Related Workers. This, coupled with the social security and other safety nets for the elderly, serves to protect them against a sub-standard level of living.

Health, Education and Population Quality

A healthy and educated population is the right prescription for sustainable development. The housing condition of a country is one of the many factors that have implications for the health condition of the population. The number of persons per household, toilet facilities, kitchen facilities and access to clean water are some of the main housing conditions that have implication for the health of the occupants.

The average number of persons per household decreased from 3.36 persons in 1980 to 3.02 persons in 1991. It was estimated that this average would be around 2.73 in 1996. In 1980, 5.14% of households had no toilet facilities; an insignificant 0.81% faced this same deplorable condition in 1991. Almost 98% of all households had indoor kitchen by 1991 and over 96% indicated that they did not share a kitchen with another household. All households had access to clean water from one source or another.

The Crude Death Rate (CDR), and Life Expectancy of Puerto Rico 7.8 and 73.9 years respectively for 1993; these rates for Japan were 7.1 and 79 years. In the BVI the CDR was 4.70, IMR was 13.94 and the Life Expectancy at Birth was 74.8 years in 1996. (See table 4).

Table 8: CDR, IMR and Life expectancy (at birth), 1992 - 1996

In 1990, the Literacy rate in Japan was 99.0%. The literacy rate of the BVI as calculated from the 1991 census data was 98.2%. The continued high enrollment rates among school goers and the recruitment of skilled labour into the BVI will ensure the high education level of the population.

Information, Education and Communication

Information, education and communication are three of the most important tools open to the population as these allow them the ability to act more independently, freely and responsibly. These tools are used to raise and enhance the understanding about the relevance of population and related issues. Effective information, education and communication efforts should utilise a wide range of communication channels including counseling, schools, the mass media, traditional folk art, seminars, the workplace, youth groups, churches etc.

The BVI disseminates population and related information in the form of reports. However, these reports are done on an annual basis. Information is available on request. The BVI does not use other media and does not have a regular programme in place to disseminate population information and related issues to the masses. 

Economic Issues

Economic Stability

Economic stability is the ultimate goal of any programme that seeks to achieve sustainable development. Economic stability provides a foundation on which social and other forms of stability can be built. 

When a population is increasing at a rapid pace, it serves, in most instances, to retard or otherwise undermine the development effort. Despite its rapidly increasing population, it was estimated that the economy [the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)] of the BVI managed to grow on average 9.86% between 1992 and 1996. The GDP reached USD 504.1 millions in 1996 and the Per Capita Income was over USD 26,000 in 1996. For Japan, the GDP Per Capita Income was USD 33,849 in 1993; for Canada, it was USD 24,563 for the same year.

Provision of Labour and Employment/Unemployment

According to the World Labour Organization, 47 million new workers enter the global job market every year. In the next 20 years, the United Nations expects 750 million new workers to enter the labour market simply from population growth. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

The provision of adequate employment to accommodate an increasing labour supply is one of the most critical and important challenges for any country. The extent to which a country can provide adequate employment is a clear indication of its economic vibrancy. Unemployment results when a country cannot accommodate its labour supply. In the case of the BVI, economic expansion directly determines the size of the labour market. The national labour supply cannot satisfy the demand of the labour market and therefore it has to be supplemented through the importation of immigrant labour.

Immigration to countries with favourable economic condition can easily get out of control. The work permit and visa requirement for employment serve to regulate this employment-motivated immigration and thereby maintain the favourable employment/unemployment situation of the country.

In 1980, 70.3% of the population (15 years and older) were employed. This percentage was 73% in 1991. The unemployment rate in 1980 was 3.7% and 3.6% in 1991. The BVI thus far has been able to maintain full employment . The unemployment rate for Canada in 1993 was 11.2%.

Environmental Issues

At any level of development, increased population increases energy use, resource consumption and environmental stress. As stated earlier, sustainable development is the maintenance of the environment by the now generation such that it can accommodate the future generation. They in turn would preserve it for the next generation to come and so on.

Land clearing (deforestation)

The destruction of forest…poses a number of environmental problems. Forests help to regulate the amount of carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere. As forests are cleared, not only is the earth’s ability to absorb carbon reduced, but the carbon retained by the trees is also released into the atmosphere. Forests also help stabilize global weather, and large-scale deforestation is linked to changes in weather patterns, as well as soil erosion and siltation of rivers. Increased flooding in Bangladesh and India is now believed to be caused by deforestation in the Himalayan Mountains where many of the sub-continent’s rivers begin. The specific reasons for deforestation vary by region, but studies by the United Nations indicate that between 1973 and 1988, 79 percent of total deforestation was a direct result of population growth. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

With the rapidly increasing population and the consequent increase in the demand for housing there has been mass unsupervised and arbitrary clearing of land in the BVI. An indication as to the demand for more housing is the increase in the number of households in 1991 over 1980. The number of households increased by 37.7% from 3,781 in 1980 to 5,332 in 1991. The number of households was estimated at 6,870 in 1996.

Ghettos and shantytowns

Perhaps the most visible example of growing world population is the increase in urbanization…This trend is expected to continue as population growth, environmental degradation and loss of agricultural jobs drive people from rural areas to cities…This rapid urbanization is associated with a number of social and economic problems, including pollution, crime, unemployment, disease transmission, poverty and homelessness. Population growth strains political institutions, and influxes of people from the countryside places tremendous demand on city services. Cities may be unable to provide housing, clean water or sanitation to rapidly growing population. (UNFPA, Population Issues, Briefing Kit, 1993).

The growth of the urban centers in the BVI is not due to internal migration but rather to international migration. When population in specific areas have to accommodate large populations, along with numerous other social problems, the result can be ghetto creation or shantytowns. Until now, though some areas appear to be congested, the BVI has been able to avoid these social eyesores.

Land Distribution

Zoning is an important part of any developmental strategy. It is important to have clearly demarcated residential, commercial and industrial areas. Until now, individuals are allowed to develop wherever they might have access to land.

Legal Issues

Population Policy:

Population policies are designed to control the development of the population characteristics of the country, especially population size. Presently, the BVI has no explicit population policy to influence these characteristics. They a presently being determined by the economic progression of the country.

Immigration Policy

Immigration policies are designed to control the flow of immigration. Such policies address issues such as number of immigrants, quotas of immigrants from certain countries, family importation, duration of stay, quality of immigrant etc. Presently the BVI has no explicit immigration policy. Immigration to the BVI is presently guided by demand of the labour market and regulated, to a certain extent, by the work permit and visa requirements.

Population Data

Population information is the most important requirement for the formulation of development policies. The Development Planning Unit (DPU) is the main producer of population and related information and is the center for population data. However, there is not an automatic system in place that feeds data into the DPU and there is no Statistical Act to compel the flow and facilitate the collection of data in the BVI.

Population Issues / Problems / Constraints, Goals / Objectives, Policies /Strategies / Measures and Programs / Projects

Matrix 1: Demographic, Social, Environmental, and Legal Issues

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